AFC East Report - NFL Crystal Ball Time

by Chris Kouffman

May 30, 2006

The NFL and its fans have been plunged deep into the doldrums of the off season now, with both free agency and the NFL Draft out of the way. Teams are months away from training camp, when fans can expect to be peppered with daily progress reports on their favorite players.

The message boards feel empty, the news sheets are bare, and the draft is too far behind to keep droning on about how teams fared. Because we have sympathy for the casual fan here at AFC East Report, we will flex our third eyes in order to undertake a true exercise in futility: predicting the future.

The Louisiana Purchase

In Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, the New Orleans Saints may have bought themselves out of the basement of the NFC, in the short term.

While I am not necessarily a huge fan of Sean Payton as an NFL head coach, nor am I among the Reggie Bush faithful that see him as the next Gale Sayers, I do see the possibility of a sizable rebound for the city under water.

What Payton lacks in forceful nature, he does make up for with experience under Bill Parcells. So far the Saints have blatantly refused to embarrass themselves in any of their free agency and/or draft endeavors. In the short term, Payton appears to know how to dot his i's and cross his t's, probably due to his experience under Parcells.

He wasted little time going for a veteran quarterback that could help the team immediately in Drew Brees, after seeking his mentor's advice on how to handle quarterback situations from a personnel standpoint. Parcells' advice was to go with the proven veteran, and the Saints made an impressive effort to woo Brees. Up until their last minute entry, Brees had been considered all but a Miami Dolphin. The Dolphins felt so threatened by the Saints in the competition that they pulled a daring maneuver, flying the company jet to visit Brees in Birmingham a few hours before he was scheduled to meet with the Saints. The team's intentions were to ensure that Brees at least visited with the Dolphins before signing anything.

It is impossible to know whether Brees would have chosen the Dolphins or the Saints, because the Dolphins, upon receiving the results of Drew's physical, pulled their offer off the table and sent word to the Minnesota Vikings that they would agree to their terms to trade for Daunte Culpepper. According to inside sources, the team notified Brees that they would keep the move under wraps for half a day while Drew finalized his contract with the Saints.

Nonetheless, the Saints grabbed a Pro Bowl quarterback in his prime, if one with an ailing shoulder. The question should not be Drew Brees or Daunte Culpepper at this point, because both are highly talented, highly motivated, proven Pro Bowl performers. They each have immense personal pride as players. Drew Brees dares any person to look him in the eye and tell him he will not come back from the shoulder injury, while Daunte rehabilitates his knee at such a fierce pace that he has already been cleared to resume nearly a full practice regimen months away from training camp.

What Brees had in San Diego that helped him tremendously was a stellar ground game that had the potential to take a significant amount of the pressure off the passer. The problem in 2005 was a complete lack of consistency from the backfield. If a defense was able to hold Tomlinson in relative check (which they were able to do about half of San Diego's games), Brees was not able to lead 25 to 30 point campaigns in order to win the ball game.

This is where the selection of Reggie Bush is such a big factor for the Saints in 2006. The Deuce McAlister/Reggie Bush backfield has tremendous rotation potential. In 2005, a similar rotation featuring Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown was able to produce nearly 2,000 total yards from the rotating backfield with a stunning consistency of production.

When Tomlinson was on track in 2004 and 2005, Drew Brees had the ability to look flawless in his execution of the offense. And, when I say flawless, I mean it.  Over the course of 2004 and 2005, he was able to produce single-game quarterback ratings above the 110-mark an incredible 13 times. Even with his arm at half-mast, the New Orleans ground game should be so consistent, and should have defenses so constantly concerned about it, that Brees should be able to strike a decent level of offensive efficiency. It does not take a Mike Martz offense to win football games. If your offense scores an average of 22 points per game, you have a decent chance at a winning record.

A look at other areas of the Saints squad shows a pretty solid unit with some decided strengths and weaknesses. The defensive line and backfield should serve as strengths for the team. Charles Grant is a year removed from two double-digit sack seasons in a row, and Will Smith has 16 sacks in two seasons. Brian Young is an extremely hard working and underrated defensive tackle. Johnathon Sullivan has the makings of a draft bust, but veteran Hollis Thomas steps into the situation with the savvy to stabilize the middle.

Meanwhile among the defensive backs, Fred Thomas has been an outstanding but little-talked-about veteran corner for many years. He is a very active tackler and a good cover man. Mike McKenzie is also a highly talented veteran corner, and Jason Craft is a solid nickel back. The story here is in the team's safeties. The team added Bryan Scott from the Falcons in trade, they still carry Dwight Smith and Jay Bellamy on the roster, they drafted Josh Bullocks in 2005, and they drafted Roman Harper in 2006. Teams that try to spread out the field against the Saints will find that the team's nickel and dime defenses are better than expected.

At receiver the team still has the fantastic Joe Horn, and the embattled Donte Stallworth. Devery Henderson was a rookie I was very high on coming out of LSU in the 2004 draft and he appears ready to make a significant contribution. Biletnikoff winner Mike Hass was drafted in the lower rounds of the 2006 NFL Draft and has the hand-eye coordination and body control to be an immediate contributor for Brees.

The weaknesses appear to be linebacker and offensive line. At linebacker the team added a nice big body in Scott Fujita for the outside to intimidate rushing lanes. The team also grabbed highly underrated Anthony Simmons to play the weak side. Simmons was one of the most outstanding linebackers in the league when healthy in Seattle, and was constantly underrated. He is a very Sam Mills-like performer, and if he can reclaim his healthy form, the Saints defense could be very decent.

On the offensive line the big question mark is the tackle play. The team traded Wayne Gandy away, and decided to move first round pick Jammal Brown from the right side to the left side in order to get Jon Stinchcomb on the field at right tackle. The interior looks solid with road grater Montrae Holland next to veterans Jeff Faine and Jermaine Mayberry. Jammal Brown may be a stretch at left tackle, and Stinchcomb may not be an inspired right tackle either.

Overall the team could be a force to be reckoned with, instead of just being an NFC South whipping boy. They are not getting a whole lot of respect in Vegas, with 45:1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Active gamblers might take note of this situation, and lay some money on the Saints to cover the spread during the first half of the season.

Childress On the Way Out

It is hard to imagine that a coach could be on his way out after only recently being hired, but Brad Childress has exhibited zero worthiness of being an NFL Head Coach during his tenure thus far.

This is not just sour grapes for his comments about Daunte Culpepper. The simple fact of the matter is that in his press conferences he has not shown a natural feel for what he can say and what should not say. This has been evident in his addresses on all subjects, not just ones relating to Daunte Culpepper.

The league has taken notice. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, there are many league insiders that are already wishing Brad would just shut his pie hole.

The bottom line is Childress has not been a head coach at any level of football, and has not shown a feel for handling the press, or his own players. He never called the plays in Philadelphia. Heaven only knows how much a of a hand Andy Reid had in formulating offensive game plans that called for 70 percent passing and only 30 percent running in Philadelphia.

If a new head coach wants to walk into a team situation, kick some keester and tear the roster apart in order to get out with the old and in with the new, that is fine. Brad has shown a willingness to do that, and quite frankly it is a time-honored tradition for new head coaches. When engaging in such draconian tactics, one must be swift and thorough. Otherwise, you run the risk of bending noses out of shape by engaging in a little house cleaning among high profile players, and leaving those discontented players in the locker room to destabilize the chemistry. The problem with Childress, is he has only engaged in this roster clean-up at half-speed. He targeted Daunte Culpepper as a means of giving the roster a makeover, but he did not target enough other players to make the efforts successful.

I am struck by the words of some of the Vikings' most esteemed players when asked about the possibility of a Culpepper trade in late February. Standouts like Jermaine Wiggins, Bryant McKinnie, Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, and Antoine Winfield (all of which have earned pro bowl consideration) all spoke vehemently in favor of keeping Culpepper.

McKinnie was the most vocal, and was quoted saying, "We already made one mistake (trading Moss). Don't do it twice. If that's the case, let me go."

Antoine Winfield pointed out that Culpepper was one of the primary reasons he signed with the Vikings over the Jets in the 2004 off season.

"I want him here," Winfield said. "I enjoy playing with him; he's a great guy to be around, and he's definitely a leader. I mean, he had a few bad games last year. But he's had a great career. He'll bounce back, whether it's here or somewhere else."

Pat Williams spoke up as well, saying "I'm not saying Brad wouldn't get the job done. But we still need Culpepper."

It is safe to say that in trading Daunte for the pick the team would later use on offensive lineman Ryan Cook of New Mexico (a pick largely considered a reach by draft evaluators), Childress has started his regime off on the wrong foot with a number of the team's veterans. The roster move defies conventional wisdom.

Later, Childress' open and blatant character assassination attempts on a guy that each of the players in the locker room knew as a standup person and leader, had to call into question the players' respect for Childress as a person.

If Culpepper turns out to lead the Miami Dolphins to a significant amount of success, while the Vikings struggle under Childress, the trade will hang over his head for a long time and serve as a constant reminder of Childress' incompetence as a decision-maker.

My crystall ball is telling me that Rod Marinelli will lead a revival of tough man football in Detroit, and his team's discipline will edge them over the loosely-ranked Vikings in the quest to produce an NFC North team that can attempt to compete with the Bears. Brad Childress' coaching regime will end in failure within three years.

Bryant McKinnie to Miami by 2008

Speaking of the situation in Minnesota, Bryant McKinnie's statements regarding the potential trade of Daunte Culpepper are very suggestive of his future as a Viking.

This meaning, he has no future as a Viking. The New Jersey native spent his entire college career (both junior college and university) in south Florida. He practically begged the Dolphins to find a way to get him when he came out of the 2002 NFL Draft. The Dolphins never got the chance.

In the 2002 Draft, the Vikings missed on an opportunity to select a player they badly wanted in Ryan Sims. The Dallas Cowboys were on the clock at the #6 pick, and allowed time to expire as they tried to wrap up trade negotiations that would see the Kansas City Chiefs moving up to steal Sims before the Vikings could get their hands on him. All the Vikings needed to do to get the player they wanted was turn their card in immediately after the Cowboys' time expired. There were rumors that representatives of the Chiefs physically blocked the Vikings' floor representative from turning his card in, which gave the Chiefs the time needed to turn in the trade and the pick.

Bryant McKinnie was not the guy the team wanted, and the ensuing contract negotiations reflected it. They attempted to lowball McKinnie into accepting a contract with millions less than the man picked one slot after him. The holdout was ugly, and lasted 100 days. There was a very real possibility that McKinnie would have held out until he could re-enter the draft in 2003. The team and McKinney agreed on a contract that expires after the 2007 season.

Most recently, the Vikings have negotiated a restricted free agent contract with left guard Steve Hutchinson containing a poison pill clause that would result in the entire contract becoming guaranteed if he is not the most highly paid offensive lineman on the team. The deal will put an automatic roof on any contract negotiations between McKinnie and the team.

There is also the infamous 'Love Boat' scandal to consider. McKinnie was on the boat and eyewitnesses claim they saw him performing oral sex on a naked stripper. Daunte Culpepper, according to his own testimony, as well as that of a witness, was present on the cruise as well but stayed in the back of the boat shooting craps all night. According to testimony of Culpepper and a witness, he never received so much as a lap dance. If Culpepper's fortunes could go from so high to so low in part for just being at the party, how will the team react to McKinnie's more direct involvement, and subsequent plea bargain?

Given his past history with the club, his affinity for the Miami area, the presence of the Hutchinson deal, his involvement in the 'Love Boat' scandal, and his recent public disillusionment over the Moss and Culpepper trades, my crystal ball shows me Bryant McKinnie wearing aqua and orange at the very latest by 2008, with a strong possibility for a trade or release by 2007. The Dolphins recently signed L.J. Shelton to a modest three-year contract, but his career play should not discourage the team for finding a franchise bookend when one falls in their laps.

Supplemental Character

The 2006 Supplemental Draft will feature two outside linebacker prospects with serious character questions in Ahmad Brooks of Virginia and Jason Berryman of Iowa State. Of the two, Brooks should be selected in the second or third round, while Berryman may not be selected at all. In the long run, Berryman may turn out to have been better value as an undrafted free agent, compared to the second or third given for Brooks.

Berryman spent all of 2004 out of football and in jail for eight months after getting into a campus fight that saw Jason decking an Iowa State student, then stealing his wallet (which contained four dollars) and another student's cell phone. Prior to the incident, he was already on probation for kicking out the glass of his girlfriend's back window.

Prior to his unprecedented acceptance back onto the team, he held ten face-to-face meetings with the head coach, which saw him agreeing to an extremely rigid behavioral contract. The agreement forced him to attend summer school at his own expense, attend anger management classes, and follow each and every team rule (on and off the field) with the consequence of breaking one of them being dismissal.

After a successful year back in the program that saw him staying out of trouble and finishing the season with 3.5 sacks against TCU in the Houston Bowl, Berryman ran into trouble again. He was caught on a Saturday night inside a local night club with a myriad of other Iowa State students, and given a citation by police officers for being inside a club while under legal drinking age.   The incident occurred a mere three weeks before his 21st birthday. The head coach wanted to dismiss the incident instead of the player, but the contract gave him little choice.

As a defensive end Berryman is undersized at 6'2" and 240 pounds. He plays like a pursuit linebacker, having tallied 182 total tackles in 24 games, which works out to about 7.5 tackles per game. He also notched 20 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, 27 quarterback hurries, 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries during that period. His jaw-dropping performance against TCU in what turned out to be his final game led defensive coordinator John Skladany to call him "amazing," and labeled Berryman's game "as good a performance as you are ever going to see."

Talent-wise, Ahmad Brooks is the far superior pick, and his Supplemental Draft standing should reflect that talent advantage. However, with the significant character questions surrounding Brooks' dismissal for a laundry list of misdeeds (which includes legal trouble, positive drug tests, as well as both weight and attitude issues) there is a very real question as to whether he will ever give himself the opportunity to display his significant talents on the field on a consistent basis.

Berryman displayed a very clear pattern of anger management issues at Iowa State, and was taught a very hard lesson with eight months in jail. He has not displayed any signs of anger management issues since his release from prison. The anger management classes he agreed to take as a stipulation of his reinstatement may have made a difference. In this case, the straw that broke the camel's back was for simply being at a club with a bunch of teammates three weeks before turning 21 years of age. The citation did not even note that he was drinking at the club, just that he was there.

Neither Berryman's work ethic nor his weight control have been questioned; only his ability to stay out of trouble off the field has come into question. This leads me to believe that Berryman represents a smaller character risk than Brooks, who has had significant off field incidents as well as work ethic and weight control issues. In the end, this should give Berryman a better chance than Brooks at displaying his football talents at the NFL level.

Of course, this all depends on what kind of workout numbers both Berryman and Brooks are able to put up at their respective pro days. My crystal ball is not good enough to provide guidance on those measurables.

Tennessee Two-Step

The 2006 season will represent step one of a two step process that will propel the Tennessee Titans to the basement of the NFL. Step One will involve the firing of Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow, while Step Two will see them wallowing away in frustration and controversy over new quarterback Vince Young until GM Floyd Reese is finally fired along with the next coaching staff.

The 2006 season figures to be no picnic for Titans fans. It will start off on the wrong foot when the Titans release or trade veteran Steve McNair, who is newcomer Vince Young's friend and mentor. This will give Vince mixed feelings about the front office.

Vince Young is also aware that the current coaching regime, including both Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow, wanted nothing to do with Vince Young. He has likely heard by now that Fisher and Chow lost a waged battle with general manager Floyd Reese that saw the Titans selecting Young over the coaches' choice, Matt Leinart.

Acrimony between Young and the front office will develop in contract negotiations as Vince demands to be paid more than the number one overall selection in the draft, Mario Williams.  Prior to being drafted, the Vince Young camp, led by laughable agent Major Adams, indicated that Vince could demand to be paid more than any other draft pick regardless of draft position. Being selected number three overall (where many predicted a slide), along with a perceived weakness in the value of number one overall pick Mario Williams, and leverage deriving from Steve McNair's departure, all figure to embolden Vince Young in his desire to be paid more money than any player in the draft.

After what could shape up to be a tough set of contract negotiations and a significant holdout, Vince Young will cry poormouth as the unwanted stepson of a coaching staff that preferred the white Matt Leinart, and a front office that refused to pay him his worth.

Troubles will continue throughout the 2006 season as as a struglling Titans team sees strenuous fan demand to see Vince Young play earlier, rather than later. Though he will not even be close to ready, Vince Young will agree with the fans, and will make his own push for the benching of Billy Volek.

The obvious fact that Vince is simply not intelligent enough to learn Norm Chow's full pro style offense will force the staff to incorporate some zone read and option plays into the playbook. As Rod Woodson recently explained on the NFL Network, every team in the league is hoping the Titans run the option, because the option never has, and never will work in the NFL.

After struggling predictably, Young (who is not use to losing) will begin to unravel off the field in a manner similar to Ryan Leaf. His pattern of decision-making between the Rose Bowl and Draft suggests a consistent inability to handle off-field issues in the manner expected of the face of a multi-billion dollar franchise.

To Young, the reason he is struggling will be the fact that neither Jeff Fisher nor Norm Chow wanted him. He will claim (privately, maybe publicly as well) that the pair refused to set him up for success in a manner that compares to the way Daddy Mack Brown tailored his offense to Young's talents. The reality is that Mack Brown reduced his normal offense (the one operated by Chris Simms) to the paint-by-numbers version, in order to accomodate Vince's lack of intelligence and inability to grasp the offense. In the NFL, you just cannot get away with that kind of simplification.

After a season of struggles, Jeff Fisher and Norm Chow will be fired. Floyd Reese will steer the ensuing search toward coaches that have specific plans for using Vince Young in a manner that best utilizes his athletic ability (and covers for his lack of intelligence). When astute coaches point out in interview that the team should move Vince into an option receiver role and start over at quarterback by drafting either Brady Quinn or Drew Stanton, Floyd Reese will hit a button that opens a trap door beneath them which leads to a pit of crocadiles, where the unsuspecting coach will be torn to pieces.

A number of high quality head coaching candidates will simply shy away from tossing their name in the ring for the Tennessee job, because they do not want to be forced to abandon the principles of offense that they have developed for years in order to run a gimmick offense around a childish malcontent with no aptitude for pro offenses, and an awkward sidewinder delivery.

A name that could surface for the head coaching job in Tennessee would be Mike Mularkey, whose recent step-down from the Buffalo Bills head coaching position actually resulted in a net positive to his sinking reputation, once the remainder of the NFL realized just how messed up the Buffalo front office situation was under Tom Donahoe. Mularkey will receive high praise from Reese for his being the offensive coordinator to manage a 3,000 yard passing season out of Kordell Stewart in Pittsburgh. He should be fresh off a semi-successful one year stint as offensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins.

Under Mularkey, and with Vince Young as quarterback, the Titans will flounder in the basement of the NFL for a few years, until GM Floyd Reese is asked to step down, and Mularkey, Young, and staff are run out of town.

Nick Saban, head coach of the Miami Dolphins, will then utilize his personal relationship with Vince Young to do what he attempted to do with Young many years ago at LSU: recruit him as a wide receiver.

Quickies

1. When all is said and done, the consensus will be that the Buffalo Bills had the best 2006 NFL Draft in the AFC East (excluding player trades and picks given up in the 2005 Supplemental Draft). Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson will make an excellent safety tandem, while John McCargo and and Kyle Williams form a defensive tackle tandem that plays a hard-nosed, disciplined, penetrating style suitable for the style of defense. Ashton Youboty will be a solid outside zone corner. Brad Butler is likely to develop into a consistent starter on the offensive line as well, and if he disappoints then either Terrance Pennington or Aaron Merz might be able to step in his place. In one draft the franchise may have secured future solid starters for half of their defense.

2. The Lions will reclaim a little lost glory under new head coach Rod Marinelli. They will be the team to rise up and present a decent challenge to the Bears. Marinelli's hard-nosed style, along with Mike Martz' brains, and their moving on from the Joey Harrington era should help overcome Matt Millen's idiocy as a GM.

3. The Jacksonville Jaguars receivers group, including tight ends, will all retire from the NFL simultaneously in order to form a semi-pro basketball team based out of Florida, where they will dominate the Orlando Magic in exhibition games. Seriously, with Marcedes Lewis (6'6") added to a group that features first rounders Reggie Williams (6'4") and Matt Jones (6'6"), along with top contributors Ernest Wilford (6'4") and Kyle Brady (6'6"), the Jaguars should put up a sign at the door of their interview room at the 2007 NFL Combine that says "Under 6-feet, 4-inches need not apply."

4. With the NFL's theme of sifting through conservative politicians to find their next Commissioner, the league will turn its lustful eye toward Arnold Schwarzeneggar. Unfortunately, a controversial history of attending soccer games in Europe will turn every real football fan in America against the ex-European. With his image tarnished and his hopes of becoming Commissioner all but dashed, he will make a bold prediction on Monday Night Football that "Wayne Quebec" will come to his aid and help him make an unlikely comeback. Inexplicably, his obtuse prediction will actually turn out true.

5. The world will end in 2039.


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