By Mark Weiler

May 18th, 2006

This piece is a continuation of Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Part 2.

Some say that this past season’s Bears team is partially the culmination of Jauron’s work. It may very well be and little argument can be made that Jauron did not at least have some hand in creating it.

But let’s be honest here, the Bears this past season played only three teams during the regular season that had above average offenses. Two of those teams were the Bengals and Steelers who beat the Bears 24-7 and 21-9 respectively with the Steelers putting up nearly 200 yards rushing. The other was Carolina whom the Bears beat 13-3 during the regular season, but then lost to while yielding 29 points in their only playoff game. So in three of four games vs. opponents with above average offenses the Bears were 1-3 with an average score of 12.5 to 19.25 and they allowed an average of 24.7 points in three of the four games.

Furthermore, 8 of the 10 TD drives in only those three games were 52, 56, 60, 62, 62, 66, 70, and 73 yards, an average of 63 yards.

Otherwise, the rest of the slate featured some of the worst teams and offenses in the entire league. Almost identically to the 2001 season, of the Bears’ 11 wins, 7 were against teams averaging 4.5 wins. Two of the other four wins were vs. the 9-7 Vikes and 8-8 Falcons, both home games. The Bears’ schedule tightens up a bit this coming season, so it will be an interesting contrast to see how far their defensive rankings slide.

Perhaps the fruition of "Dick Jauron’s defensive buildup" is flawed and overrated after all just as seemed the case in 2001. Nevertheless, it would appear that he is using the same approach that he used in Chicago in Buffalo for what that may be worth. But what does such a D do? Well, based on what is outlined above, against poor offensive teams it does well. Otherwise, not enough to win games.

It also addresses the passing defense first, and apparently all but exclusively. As if that isn’t evident by now for Bills fans and those covering this team. Even the defensive linemen that Jauron & Co. have selected are noted almost exclusively for their pass rushing "prowess," in spite of not having the stats to substantiate that, as Tripplett and McCargo are both woefully short on sack stats amidst the hype of their being superlative pass rushers. Once again, figure that out. For the sacks that they have logged, they are against the scrubs of their leagues in terms of QBs and offenses. How this bodes well for them or the Bills is beyond me. Then again, what do I know.

In a recent interview, McCargo’s ex coach made some interesting statements. He actually intimated as much as he tactfully suggested that McCargo’s "youth and ambition" might overcome "a lot of deficiencies" in his game at present. Now, how often does that happen in the NFL, where "youth and ambition overcome a lot of deficiencies?" He also stated that McCargo needs "seasoning" and probably isn’t ready to play. So what, now McCargo’s a "project" of sorts. Is that it? It doesn’t sound, when reading between the lines of McCargo’s ex-coach here, that McCargo was a true first-round prospect.

He did say some positive things, such as that McCargo is faster off the ball than Mario Williams and Manny Lawson in spite of demonstrating a 40-time of approximately a half-second worse than both, if one believes that. My question is what the heck happens to McCargo in the last 35 yards if that’s true? Because NFL DTs’ success is not predicated on how fast or hard DTs burst for 5-yards unhindered or unchecked while possessing 6.5 40-time after that. As well, if he is so utterly fast, then why only a single sack vs. UNC’s single-season starter Matt Baker who went undrafted? Or does his "back end" speed indicate that if he doesn’t get his man within the first five yards that he’s worthless?

Meanwhile, Williams and Lawson combined for 23 sacks combined this past season, which is 23 times more sacks than McCargo’s had in the past two seasons combined. So, say again coach, you say that McCargo would "win every race for five yards with Williams and Lawson." What, might I just ask then, happens after that first five yards so that McCargo’s numbers reflect nearly zero production in two seasons statistically vice the 23 sacks that Williams and Lawson put up in a single season? Call me crazy, but something just isn’t lining up here. What it is we will find out exactly come September.

But for those reading between the lines, read that perhaps the coach is parsing words very tactfully and politically, just as he should it can be added! It would be highly inappropriate for such a coach to be disparaging about a former player in this way which is exactly why statements from such people should not be taken as good points for evaluation. Either way, words mean things, so I will assume that the ex-coach meant what he said. Combined with other data, such as McCargo’s measurables, I’ll connect the dots as I always do. Call me insane, but 5.11 isn’t as fast as either 4.66 or 4.43. Given the coach’s statements about McCargo possessing insane front end speed, it can only mean that over the full 40, McCargo’s back-end, or "last 35 speed," drops off exponentially from that 5.11 if the coach’s words ring true.

Nevertheless, and getting back on point, the results in Chicago, and with substantially greater talent it can easily be argued, the results were according to above, or to restate, produced rushing defenses with an average ranking of 16.6, or 20.25 in the four seasons other than the 2001 season.

This season the Bears ranked 11th in rushing yardage defense and last season (2004) they ranked 25th. Needless to say, if the Bills do the same, the data all but guarantees that these Bills will never see any semblance of an ultimately competitive team under Jauron’s guidance, barring an cupcake schedule which isn’t likely to come about in the AFC East. As pointed out in Parts 1 & 2 of this piece, the best teams typically have well above average rushing defenses. But the Bills are doing absolutely nothing to improve upon last season’s rushing defense which can arguably be labeled the worst in the league all things considered.

But hey, what else is new, eh. As Bills fans we’ve come to expect that at dinner time a bowl of swill labeled "good food" is shoved through a slot at the bottom of the door and slid across the floor and fed to a captive audience that is quickly losing interest. In fact, the talk now is of the Sabres, and appropriately so, but also in the context of "why can’t the Bills be run more like the Sabres," also appropriately so, yet not anything even approaching being an endorsement of the Bills and they way that they are run. At this point, fan interest for the Sabres beginning in October may easily supercede that of the Bills. I already anticipate that this is the first season in a long while where four or five games do not sell out.

What is certain is that the ability to run and stop the run appear to be the keys to winning NFL championships. This is nothing new. Yet, the Ivy-League-Dynamic-Duo appear to be hell bent on proving that there is no such correlation. I wonder what the results will be! Hmmm… Gosh, I wonder, which will win out, the wilings of the Ivy-League-Dynamic-Duo, or decades of NFL history and baselining? That’s a tough one!

But let’s take a look at what Levy should have been able to bring to the table in this area, shall we.

The Giants beat the Bills in Super Bowl 25, …AHEM… , under Marv Levy, with a 2-to-1 time-of-possession advantage (40 minutes to 20 minutes) and greater rushing production on a team with a backup QB and less skill position talent.

The Redskins dominated the Bills in Super Bowl 26, …AHEM… , under Marv Levy, with an 8-minute time-of-possession advantage and nearly a 3-to-1 rushing advantage as they both ran on the Bills and shut the Bills’ rushing game down to the tune of only 14 carries for 30 yards from Thomas and Davis.

The Cowboys dusted the Bills in Super Bowl 27, …AHEM… , under Marv levy, while once again holding a time-of-possession advantage with a 137 yard to 108 yard rushing advantage coupled with a 4.7 yard-per-carry to 3.7 yard-per-carry rushing average. The Cowboys had a perfect balance between rushing and passing at 30 plays to 29 plays respectively to Buffalo’s 38/29. Emmitt Smith went 22 carries for 108 yards to Thomas’ 11 carries for 19 yards.

The Cowboys once again beat the Bills in Super Bowl 28, …AHEM… , under Marv Levy, once again with a 9-minute time-of-possession advantage and a 137 yard/3.9 ypc to 87 yard/3.2 ypc rushing deficit. They did so to the tune of 24-0 in the 2nd half with the Bills leading 13-6 at the break. Once again, Emmitt Smith’s 30-for-132 outshone Thomas’ 16-for-37. Smith had 19 carries for 92 in the 2nd half when the Cowboys put-a-hurtin’ on Levy’s Bills who simply had no answers.

If anyone should know this, it should be tattooed on Levy’s cranium to the point where he wakes up daily seeing it in his mirror. Yet, in the four Super Bowls combined, the Bills experienced an average time-of-possession deficit of 10 minutes, 35 to 25 minutes. The never held a time-of-possession advantage in any of the four Super Bowls. They also yielded an average rushing production deficit of 143 to 101 yards, or a delta of 42 yards. That delta is more than half of four teams’ entire average rushing production last season.

Can it possibly be spelled out any differently in order to get someone not believing in the "lines first" philosophy to get it to sink in? Why do Bills’ GMs and coaches seem to avoid common sense in this way like cats avoid water? When will the Bills ever have a GM/coach tandem that understands this?

Meanwhile, the Bills appear to be building a defense that is geared towards stopping the pass, just as Chicago, the only team that Jauron has had any significant influence in building, is. Sadly, that same D as documented is not good at stopping the run. All indicators are that Jauron is doing just that following a draft loaded with defensive backs in all the best selections and a free agency period in which one of the top-two defensive players were taken was a safety. After all, why not as Jauron is a former defensive backs coach as well, just like the inexperienced Perry Fewell. So why not stick with what’s familiar or ridiculous notions that success may perhaps stem from outside of one’s comfort, and perhaps knowledge, zone. I suppose just as in business, those the most averse to taking risks and that fear failure are the least successful.

Offensively, Fairchild hales from a team that is prone to passing first. For the stats and data there, please refer to my April 12th, 2006 Buffalo Buffoons piece. But it is clear that if the Bills do or even lean towards what the Rams did under Fairchild, and presumably they will, otherwise what was the point of the Ivy-League-Dynamic-Duo hiring him, then they will be moving in the wrong direction towards building a Super Bowl winner. Kevin Gilbride already bore this out. This team needs "Gilbride II" like it needs Bledsoe or Mike Williams back.

And while they’ve recently stated that they’re going to be running more, what then was the logic behind hiring an offensive coordinator from a system not having done that and presumably with little experience with anything other than an aerial circus of sorts? Why hire the single offensive coordinator that has had the most unbalanced offense, from pass to run, in the entire league over the past three seasons? "Hello, McFly? Anyone home McFly?" And why the need for 7 or 8 capable wide receivers in a system that is supposed to be "run first?" The outcomes here are absolutely not difficult to predict!

Why? Oh why? How much longer are Bills fans supposed to put up with this and similar?

The Bills are looking to strengthen the team via defense in a league where rushing defenses determine the viability of not only defenses, but of teams in general, yet they hired a coach who in spite of having a record of failure has only produced rushing defenses ranking average or mostly below average, in spite of focusing on defense during those seasons.

They then hired an inexperienced defensive coordinator that was formerly a secondary coach to run a defense that has done absolutely nothing to improve last season’s 31st ranking vs. the run.

They then state that they are seeking to employ a balanced offensive approach but then hire an offensive coordinator that ran the most unbalanced offensive program in the league during his stint as OC on the Rams.

Meanwhile, the entire program is being overseen by a GM with no experience and one that "should have learned the hard way" the lessons and merits of possessing two solid lines due to his successes as well as his experiences and failures in his biggest games as coach, yet one that shows absolutely no signs of understanding anything of the sort to date.

Once again overpaid backups, one-dimensional high-round draftees, and low-round draftees lead the way here. The one defensive linemen taken highly in the draft has zero skills vs. the run.

Little makes sense about these Bills when the statements are matched up and reconciled with reality. Meanwhile statements made by players having left expressing frustration sum things up nicely. Sam Adams complained about ‘not being used properly.’ Imagine. (Sarcasm intended)

Moreover, the team has once again completely over-emphasized the skill positions, now defensive in addition to offensive, in building their team. On the flip side they’ve once again completely ignored the lines in terms of building them to optimize the rushing game on either side of the ball. Meanwhile, they scratch their heads and wonder which QB may shine as if any of them, or any QB in the league for that matter, would have a reasonable chance behind this line.

Meanwhile, those such as myself continue to look at what really builds a winner and then in turn continue to scratch our little heads, perplexed that those earning well into the hundreds of thousands and millions annually just can’t grasp the simplest of concepts. This is not some sort of riddle-of-the-ages here that only wise sages can discern! Nor is it complicated in the least! It is also not according to our opinions, but according to statistics, facts, trends, and other readily available data. Yet, the Bills braintrust plows ahead as if this data does not exist. Then we draw conclusions, very simple and direct ones, on that information.

So pardon us if we are not buying into yet more hype that simply doesn’t fit the pattern of doing what every NFL team presumably hopes to do, namely build a Super Bowl champion.

Yes, I will once again lay out my predictions prior to the season starting this fall. But you know what, they’ll be right in line with all of the data discovered and revealed, not contrived or fabricated, and will once again paint a bleak picture for the Bills this season. There isn’t one game on the Bills schedule that can legitimately be classified as a "gimme win." Not one!

The Bills have done absolutely nothing practical in forging ahead in either running the ball or stopping the run. But no, our coaches and GM know better. They know better than ample data, trends, history, and even common sense not to mention what many ultimately successful coaches know. (Gibbs, Johnson, Parcells to name three that schooled Levy) But honestly, why would, how could, anyone draw any conclusions other than those that will be drawn based on the information presented, again, not contrived or fabricated.

It is a real conundrum!

mweiler@billsbuzz.com