By Mark Weiler

May 16th, 2006 

As such, table 1-1 from that piece is provided as a reference point for the analyses contained herein.

The last four Super Bowl participants and winners ranked the following in stopping the run during the regular and post seasons, and their associated pass defense rankings are contrasted:

As one can plainly see, each of the last four Super Bowl winners had a regular season average rank of 4.5 and a post season average rank of 2.75 (of 12 teams) in rushing yards allowed per game. Yet, each of those same Super Bowl winners had an average regular season rank of 12.25, 16th when one does not consider Tampa’s 1st ranking in ’02 on an incredible talent-laden D overall, and an average ranking of 6.75 (of 12 teams) in passing yards allowed per game. Why or why not?

Since it is opponents’ ability to run that sets the tone for the passing game, it is clear that the emphasis should be on stopping the run, … for teams desirous of actually being in the running to compete with the best that is. If opponents can run, they do, and passing yardage will typically be lower. If teams cannot run, or are not in a position to be able to run (trailing by too much, e.g.), then passing yardage is typically and often much higher. Again, common sense, not some mystical formulation that only ESPN and NFL "experts" and professional analysts can see through.

Table 1-1 in this piece suggests many things, most of which have been known for decades whether GMs and coaches wish to take advantage of that knowledge or not, with those that do and have being the ones to capitalize on such knowledge.

Teams finishing 1st through 4th in passing yardage defense averaged only 4.25 wins.

9 of the top 11 and 12 of the top 15 ranked teams in passing-attempts-allowed, meaning fewest attempts allowed, finished with 6 or fewer wins.

Of those 12 teams ranked among the top-15 in passing attempts allowed and with losing records, they consumed 11 of the 12 worst-ranked spots in rushing yards allowed, slotting in all but the 26th spot from 21st through 32nd in rushing yards allowed! Hello Marv Levy & Dick Jauron!!!

8 of the 12 ranked 20th or worse in rushing attempts allowed.

Only one of the 12 (Jets, 6th) ranked better than 14th in opponent passer rating allowed.

Of those 12 teams, the ranking delta between passing-attempts-allowed and rushing-yardage-rank, are: -17, -28, -28, -11, -18, -19, -20, -16, -21, -15, -6, -7. This produces an average delta of –17.2 demonstrating a clear correlation between an inability to stop the run and higher rankings in passing yardage defense.

As well, of those 12 teams, the ranking delta between passing-attempts-allowed and opponent-passer-rating rank are: -25, -23, -3, -27, -27, -10, -20, -4, -7, -7, -5, -13. This produces an average delta of -14.25 demonstrating a clear inversely proportional correlation between highly ranked yardage pass defense rankings and bottom-ranked pass-efficiency-defenses. In essence, the best passing-yardage-defenses are the worst passing-efficiency-defenses. Again, why?

As well, nowhere in the history of pro football has a superlative secondary even remotely overcome a fair-to-poor front-7 and/or front-4! But this crew in Buffalo apparently knows better than all that. What else are fans to believe?

Looking through table 1-1, I’m sure that many more things can be gleaned, but this drives home the points of this piece in spades for those "with eyes to see and ears to hear with."

In short, what this data reveals is that while losing teams may be "effective" at keeping their opponents down in passing attempts, they are by no means good at stopping opponents passing games meaning that those opponents get all the production, generally speaking, that they need from their passing games in limited effort and opportunities. And why not, as it only makes sense that for teams not being able to stop the run, … AHEM…, the Bills, that their secondaries must focus and put an extreme overemphasis from their secondary in stopping the run. When that happens, the DBs must cheat up and risks in the secondary are taken and opportunities for the offense exposed. A couple of good cover safeties aren’t going to heal that.

It also clearly means that opponents simply do not need to pass given their tremendous success at running the ball, the preferred method of ball-movement in the NFL. On the flip side, a superlative pass rush and front-4/7 can indeed overcome a sketchy or certainly "less than superlative" secondary. Just ask the Super Bowl era Bills. Didn’t Levy coach that team? So why the disconnect? Could it perhaps be that Dick Jauron played his pro career as a safety and worked his way through the coaching ranks as a defensive backs coach? Fewell the same?

Let’s take a look at the correlations of teams ranking among the worst in pass attempts, shall we;

Perhaps the most glaring and stark contrast with the data as outlined to this point throughout this piece is the much lower, in fact on the other end of the spectrum, rankings of the defenses of the best teams insofar as passing yardage goes, yet showing, also on the other end of the spectrum, an ability to defend passing games efficiently forcing opponents to much lower ratings on the season relatively and generally speaking.

But as anyone can plainly see, of the 13 teams ranked 20th or worse in passing attempts allowed:

8 made the playoffs.

All but one had winning records.

7 had rushing yardage defenses ranked among the top-10.

8 of the 13 ranked above average in passing defense efficiency. (Passer Rating D)

Of the 5 that did not, 4 of those teams ranked among the bottom-12 (or 21st or worse) in passer rating D yet still posted winning records.

Of the 13 teams, those with winning records had the following deltas from passing yardage defense to rushing yardage defense: +27, +15, +20, +27, +23, -6, +3, +13, -3, +3, +5, and +23.

The average delta for those teams was a + 12.5.

Also interestingly, teams such as New England and Kansas City in spite of having had tremendously horrid passing defense statistics and therefore performance across the board, still managed to post records of 10-6 on the strength of their ability to stop the run posting top-10 capabilities there. San Diego, in spite of a host of secondary issues, also managed to post a 9-7 record on the merits of their strong rushing defense.

Just as before, clearly more can be gleaned from the data in table 1-4. But the bottom line to all of this is that if an NFL team can stop the run, they’re simply yards ahead in the game, literally. If not, then they are at a tremendous disadvantage.

To be continued in Part 3.

mweiler@billsbuzz.com