By Mark Weiler

May 11, 2006

Defense wins championships, right? Well does it? Regular readers have heard me rant up one wall and down another that the crux of any good championship caliber NFL team is its lines, both offensive and defensive off of which flow solid rushing and the ability to stop opponents from running the football. In actuality, it’s not just myself, but many understand that "the war is won in the trenches" when it comes to the NFL.

Running the football kills many birds with one stone. It keeps an offense on the field longer and therefore keeps the opposing defense on the field longer by correlation. The result is time-of-possession advantage. It reduces the risk of throwing interceptions and therefore of turning over the ball. It is the basis for good ball-control offense. Common sense, not some profound notion that only people having worked in the ranks of the football professionals can understand.

So are these notions or are they simply "wives tales?" I ask the question because so many GMs, coaches, and teams appear to try to perpetually reinvent the wheel when it comes to winning formulas for success. Why is a question that only they can answer.

Below in table 1-1 are certain ranking statistics from the 2005 season. Take a minute and look the table over as the rest of the article is predicated on these statistics and their correlations and implications. As well, if you are allergic to numbers and data, please stop reading here. If you can wade through the ensuing litany of numerical information however, you’ll be all the better informed.

No team finishing among the top-10 in yards-per-carry offensively had a losing record.

No team finishing among the top-14 in offensive rushing yardage had a losing record.

No team finishing among the top-15 in number of rushing attempts had a losing record.

No team finishing among the top-7 in yards-per-carry defensively had a losing record.

No team finishing among the top-8 in defensive rushing yardage allowed had a losing record.

Only two teams finishing among the top-17 in defensive rushing yardage allowed had a losing record.

Only one team finishing among the top-12 in number of rushing attempts allowed had a losing record.

Only two teams finishing among the top-18 in number of rushing attempts allowed had a losing record.

On the flip side:

Of those 14 losing teams:

9 finished ranked among the worst 13 teams and all 14 ranked 11th or worse in yards-per-carry offensively.

11 finished ranked among the worst 13 teams and all 14 ranked 15th or worse in offensive rushing yardage. 13 of 14 teams ranked below average.

13 finished ranked among the worst 14 teams in offensive rushing attempts. All 14 teams were ranked among the 17 worst.

7 finished ranked among the worst 11 teams’ for yards-per-carry allowed and 11 of 14 finished ranked 14th or worse there.

11 finished ranked among the worst 12 teams in rushing yardage allowed. 12 of 14 ranked below average there.

10 finished among the bottom-10 in rushing attempts allowed. 12 finished below average there and among the bottom 14 teams.

Of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Seattle, the Giants, Chicago, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Washington:

6 were ranked among the top-10, 7 among the top-12, and 8 among the top-14 for yards-per-carry offensively.

8 were ranked among the top-11 and 10 were ranked above average in offensive rushing yardage.

7 were ranked among the top-10, 11 among the top-15 (or above average, 16th or better), and all 12 ranked 18th or higher in offensive rushing attempts.

9 of 12 were ranked above average in yards-per-carry allowed.

11 of 12 ranked above average (16th or better) in rushing yards allowed.

11 of 12 ranked above average in rushing attempts allowed. All 12 ranked 18th or better.

3 of 4 conference round playoff teams finished ranked among the top-5 in rushing yards generated. The Steelers were 5th, Seattle 3rd.

7 of 8 divisional round playoff teams finished ranked among the top-12 in offensive rushing attempts. The four conference round teams were all ranked within the top-10. The Steelers were ranked 1st, Seattle 7th.

3 of 4 conference round teams ranked among the top-5 in yards-per-carry allowed. Steelers were ranked 1st, the Seahawks 5th.

All 4 conference round teams ranked among the top-5 in rushing yards allowed. Steelers 3rd, Seattle 5th.

All 4 conference round teams ranked among the top-10 in rushing attempts allowed.

The Steelers 5th, Seattle 10th.

The bottom line is that the most successful teams were able to run and stop the run.

Of the conference championship playoff teams, they had the following regular season and postseason offensive and defensive rushing yards-per-game rankings:

Table 1-2

Of the 16 ranking spots in table 1-2:

11 are ranked among the top-4 and 15 are ranked among the top-7. If this does not spell out what the formula is for building championship teams generally speaking, then nothing ever will.

Also interestingly, the two teams producing the greatest rushing yards-per-game were Seattle and Pittsburgh finishing with 148.7 and 131.8 rushing yards-per-game respectively. The only other team to break 100 rushing yards-per-game in the playoffs was Carolina at 127.3 yards-per-game rushing largely prior to DeShaun Foster being injured. The other 9 teams finished with playoff rushing yards-per-game averages of less than 100.

Is it any coincidence that Carolina utterly folded vs. Seattle after posting 123 yards to beat a stifling Bear defense in Chicago? As well, what does that say for Chicago’s "speed oriented D" in that they allowed a slew of rushing yardage? Can Bills fans expect the same here in Buffalo? Why or why not? The Panthers after losing DeShaun Foster to a season-ending injury were held to 9 carries for 21 yards by their RBs, with a long run of 15, 8 carries for 6 yards otherwise in that game vs. the Seahawks minus Foster.

Defensively, the Steelers and Seahawks finished 4th and 3rd respectively in yards-per-game allowed with 94.0 and 92.0 yards-per-game respectively.

As a side note, the Bears’ weakness in the playoffs was their inability to halt the run. They finished 10th of 12 in rushing yards-per-game allowed in the playoffs ahead of only the Bengals and Giants, two teams not even close to being heralded for their run-stuffing defensive abilities. The Bears’ only top-10 ranking in rushing defense was 9th in yards-per-carry allowed. As mentioned two paragraphs earlier, Carolina took advantage of Chicago’s inability to stop the run.

Their defensive rushing yardage ranking was 11th, they ranked 18th in attempts allowed. Could any of this have to do with the defense that Jauron helped put on the field there? Should we expect more in Buffalo? The Bears rushing defenses finished ranked 18th in 2003, 26th in 2002, 2nd in 2001, 19th in 2000, and 23rd in 1999. The 2001 schedule for the Bears featured a weak schedule of opponents generally speaking but also a weak slate of offensive opponents and poor rushing teams. The division that season featured the 21st (Green Bay), 25th (Minnesota), 28th (Detroit), and 30th (Tampa) ranked rushing teams in 8 of 16 games. All of which were well below average.

Chicago ranked well within the top-10 in all significant defensive passing categories, but clearly had stopping the run as a glaring weakness. Aren’t what Bills fans are now seeing in Buffalo yet another example of a coach not understanding what is contained within this piece? If the answer is ‘no,’ then how does one explain the obvious lack of addressing the need for stopping the run? Mostly clearly neither Tripplett nor McCargo have even marginal run-stopping skills.

Could it not be that Jauron simply does not cater to the very clear reasoning outlined here that the ability to run and stop the run are what make champions in the NFL? As well, how does hiring an offensive coordinator with passing offenses consistently ranked in the top-5 yet rushing offenses consistently ranked among the bottom-10 fit into the picture? Is this the "balance" that the Bills say they are seeking on offense? What should they, we as fans, expect here in Buffalo from an offensive coordinator that ran such an offense in St. Louis?

And please, it’s not my data. This is data readily accessible by anyone, including the Bills’ front office and entire coaching staff, and heck, even the concessionaires and legendary "janitor." I’ve merely spent the time, oh, about five or six hours or so compiling it and putting it all together in a useable and easy-to-contrast format.

To be continued in Part 2.

mweiler@billsbuzz.com